“THE WORST IS OVER.” REALLY?

A new economic phrase has been bandied about by research houses in many economies, albeit subtly. Many of the experts in these research houses “expect the worst is over” for their countries’ bleak economic performance and future scenario. But the worst just keeps getting better.

Some countries are adopting an insular approach as they want to protect their respective currencies, their national interests and their borders against encroachments by refugees fleeing from other lands. Worst, some countries are tearing trade pacts meant to improve their citizens’ livelihood. All these happenings have an effect on the world’s economy.

Is the worst really over or is it just the beginning of the worst?

During these tumultuous times on the global economic front, a country may be forced to go it alone as policymakers from various developed countries will put their citizens’ benefits first and foremost at the expense of the benefits for people in the third-world economies.

Sentiments are powerful. They can make or break people.

Sentiments concerning a country’s economy among its population are even more powerful. They can make or break the country, economically and financially. In addition, negative sentiments about the economy, if they are allowed to fester for a period of time, can eventually break the will of a people, who are desperately making ends meet.

In order to maintain positive sentiments about the economy of a country, experts in the research houses, economists and policymakers constantly harangue its population on how good that economy is performing even though the country is drowning, economically. Hence, the phrase “expect the worst is over” is perennially played to minimise the level of panic and fear among citizens of any country.

Unfortunately, the citizens become more panic-stricken when they hear that “the worst is over” as the economic environment, internal and external, unfolding right before their eyes tells a different story. As a result, the citizens become jittery about the actual situation pertaining to their countries’ economic status because the global business environment keeps fluctuating without showing any signs of consistency. It is like sitting on a see-saw – swing up and down, swing up and down, swing up and down, etc.

Let’s hear what the experts in the research houses, the economists and the policymakers have to say then.

“The worst is here”?

ANALYSTS OR SOOTHSAYERS?

There is a big difference between forecasting future events based on sentiments and understanding current events leading to the eventual outcomes that may or may not happen. The former is the expertise of a soothsayer. The latter is the province of a realist.

A soothsayer is a diviner, a prophet and a seer who paints a very rosy picture of an uncertain future in the present economically challenging times. He is a diviner par excellence. For him, anything and everything in the economic sphere can make a rebound even in economically hopeless times. Based on past economic experience, he feels things and events can become better economically. But he forgets that there is always a first time for everything in the economic sphere too. And this first time for everything on the downturn of a global economy can drag for sometime. The drag can even worsen rendering him jobless as nobody is going to listen to his forebodings anymore.

A realist, on the other hand, takes stock of what is happening at the present moment and tries to understand the REAL causes that led to these effects in the global economy. He is a wise analyser who doesn’t rely on his whims and fancies or least of all, his feelings. He doesn’t play to the gallery of fools comprising nitwit politicians, greedy businessmen, bankrupt nationalists, etc. He is staid in analysing things and events unfolding on the economic front to their eventual fruition relying on past experiences using logical, tried and tested solutions. He doesn’t rely on gimmickry and feelings like soothsayers do.

If it is required, he will contribute his findings, which are based on causes and effects, to help stem the growing tide of economic duress. He never ever depends on sentiments or the “feel good factor” at all.

Although his analyses of causes and effects are based on tried and tested economic laws that have been successfully implemented in other economies in the past, he is still a cautious analyst as he knows very well that there may be a first time for everything in the economic sphere of things.

Today, there are many soothsayers masquerading as business analysts, economic analysts, financial analysts, political analysts, etc. As global economic events tear away all their analyses and predictions for the future, they stand stripped fully-naked for the whole world to see them in their true forms.